Rating: Strong Buy
Summary
Trinity Biotech plc (Trinity,
or "the Company"), headquartered in Ireland, develops, acquires,
manufactures and markets diagnostic products for the point-of-care (POC) and
clinical laboratory segments of the diagnostic market. The broad line of test
kits are mostly used to detect infectious diseases, sexually transmitted
diseases, blood coagulation disorders, and autoimmune diseases. Through its
own sales force, as well as a network of international distributors and
strategic partners, Trinity sells products in 80 countries; in 2003 we estimate
that North America will account for about 62% of total sales and 25% will be
obtained from Europe.
We believe Trinity's outlook
is favorable and that its stock is very attractive for investors oriented to
companies with modest market capitalizations. Key factors supporting these
conclusions are the following:
• An
Attractive Industry. The diagnostic products industry, in general, is an
attractive sector for investors. Demand is rather recession-proof, and growth
will be stimulated by many of the same factors boosting the entire healthcare
industry—expanding and aging populations, societies placing a priority on
sustaining good health and treating diseases, and advancing technologies that
make achievement of this goal possible. Moreover, as diseases become better
understood and treatable, early diagnosis will be even more relevant and
valuable. Currently, diagnostics account for less than 1% of each country's
healthcare expenditures, but cost-effective diagnostic technology is likely to
increase in importance due to such factors as favorable reimbursement policies
for clinical labs, genomics technology and rapid growth of POC testing.
• Growing
From a Small Base. Trinity itself accounts for a very small share of
the $20 billion worldwide market for diagnostic reagents, consumables and
instrumentation. Within the infectious disease category, its area of greatest
concentration, Trinity's market share approximates 1%, while in the smaller
hemostasis market its share is estimated to be 3%-4%. Although the Company's
competition includes several large companies such as Roche, Abbott, Johnson
& Johnson, Bayer Chiron and Dade Behring, which are generally strong in
terms of finances and marketing, Trinity has demonstrated an ability to grow
organically and, particularly, through opportunistic acquisitions which would
be less meaningful to its larger competitors. In our opinion, Trinity's small
market share represents less of a vulnerability than an opportunity to grow
rapidly from a small base.
• Favorable
Near-Term Outlook. Trinity's broad line of older products is likely to
post only minimal unit growth, but earnings are nevertheless likely to rise
sharply in 2003 as a result of five factors: (1) a significant boost from two
recent acquisitions; (2) a 12% price increase posted September, 2002 on sales
to Trinity's largest distributor; (3) a more effective direct sales effort in
the U.S., which has been further expanded and is now being managed in a more
centralized fashion; (4) the contribution from new products, particularly a
blood test for HIV that is expected to be introduced to the U.S. market in the
second half of the year; and (5) annual manufacturing and tax cost savings of
about $1 million from the transfer of certain production to Ireland, where the
statutory tax rate for manufacturing profits is only 10.0%.
• Low
Valuation. The stock is currently selling at only 7.3 times estimated
2003 EPS, 4.8 times estimated cash flow (i.e., net income plus depreciation and
amortization), and the ratio of its market capitalization to its sales is also
among the lowest of several diagnostic companies we reference later in this
report. Considering Trinity's participation in an attractive market,
impressive current momentum, management's proven ability to successfully
supplement internal growth with an aggressive acquisition program, and strong
finances, the current valuation is surprisingly low. Assuming a favorable
overall market environment, we believe that the stock has the potential to
nearly double over the coming year, to $2.50 per share. At that price, it
would be selling at a very reasonable 11.4 times our presently anticipated 2004
estimate and, it would appear, still be undervalued.
Challenges and Risks
We view these as falling
primarily into two categories, competition and acquisitions.
Competitive Issues
Trinity competes with many
companies, as mentioned above. However, quality, product line breadth, and
compatibility with automated instrumentation have typically been more important
to laboratory customers than price, particularly within the context of favorable
reimbursement by third parties for diagnostic testing. But even if the
competitive dynamics do not change, it will continue to be important for
Trinity to be innovative—as it has been by being a leader in developing
tests such as for Lyme disease and HIV—and thereby prevent the
commoditization of its product line. In particular, genomics based diagnostics
are expected to become the next-generation technology for disease management,
and so Trinity must develop or otherwise have access to this technology. Also,
Trinity's recent acquisition of Sigma-Amelung, while presenting a new avenue
for growth, could expose Trinity to new and unfamiliar types of manufacturing,
product warranty and marketing challenges.
Implementation of Acquisitions
Management has thus far
successfully implemented an aggressive acquisition program, and we believe that
this will remain a key element of its goal to become a much larger factor in
its industry. This will require management to correctly identify promising
products and technologies that could be purchased at reasonable prices, and
then to effectively integrate the manufacture and marketing of these products
into Trinity's existing structure. It can be very attractive to transfer production
to Ireland, where taxes are low, but this needs to be done efficiently and
without incurring quality control problems.
Another type of challenge
relates to the importance of attracting broader investment interest in the
stock. Trinity is not a development-stage company and its finances are strong,
but the stock's low price suggests otherwise. At some point management could
effect a reverse split, although the benefit of this action is not clear, since
this often causes a short-term reduction in a company's market capitalization.
Another observation is that presentation of the income statement based on Irish
GAAP is probably a modest negative for U.S. investors, and so simultaneous
reporting of quarterly earnings according to both U.S. and Irish GAAP could be
helpful.
Company Background
Trinity Biotech plc was formed in 1992, and in the
same year completed an IPO which raised $4.5 million. This was achievable
because investors were attracted to the Company's initial focus
of commercializing a "rapid" (20 minute) saliva-based
test for the detection of HIV antibodies. The technology for this
product was accessed through a relationship with Disease Detection
International (DDI), an Irvine, California company that in 1994
merged with Trinity. The HIV test, SalivaCardTM, was developed
successfully, although this seven-step, three-reagent test has largely
been superceded by more convenient tests, and Trinity has a new,
particularly promising test that is in the process of being submitted
to the FDA. Trinity's early history also included the development
and sale of a pregnancy test, which was subsequently acquired by
Sybron.
Prior to founding Trinity,
management had gained some experience with a small Irish diagnostics company
and had developed a broader vision for Trinity beyond its initial focus of the
HIV test—specifically, to become involved with mainstream diagnostics.
This has in fact been achieved, largely through the aggressive acquisition
program shown below:
Table 1. Trinity Biotech
Acquisitions and Equity Investments
| |
|
|
Sales When
|
|
Approx.
|
|
|
|
Date
|
|
Entity or Product |
Acquired
|
|
Cost (mil)
|
|
Description |
|
Feb. 1997
|
|
Clark Laboratories |
$3.9
|
|
$7.6
|
|
Broad line of infectious disease
diagnostics |
|
July 1997
|
|
Centocor UK Holdings Ltd. |
3.2
|
|
5.5
|
|
Infectious disease tests in
microtitre EIA plate format |
|
June 1998
|
|
Product lines from Diatech |
1.5E
|
|
2.1
|
|
Hormone and Drugs of Abuse product
lines |
|
July 1998
|
|
Macra(r) Lp (a) from Strategic
Diagnostics Inc. |
0.4
|
|
1.9
|
|
Assay that measures Lipoprotein,
predictor of heart disease |
|
Sept. 1998
|
|
Product line from Selfcare Inc.
|
3.2
|
|
4.3
|
|
HIV antibody tests |
|
|
|
(Cambridge Diagnostics) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct. 1998
|
|
MicroTrak product line from
Dade Behring |
7.0
|
|
10.2
|
|
Sexually transmitted disease
tests |
|
Mar. 2000
|
|
MarDx(r) Diagnostics, Inc. |
5.0E
|
|
4.2
|
|
Western blot diagnostic tests
|
|
Oct. 2000
|
|
Initial investment in HiberGen
Limited |
—
|
|
1.4
|
|
Entry into molecular diagnostics
|
|
Dec. 2000
|
|
Assets of Bartels Inc. |
7.0E
|
|
9.5
|
|
Infectious disease tests |
|
Oct. 2001
|
|
Amerlex hormone business of
Ortho Diagnostics |
2.0E
|
|
0.9
|
|
Tests diagnose hormone disorders
|
|
Dec. 2001
|
|
Biopool hemostasis business |
8.0
|
|
6.3
|
|
Test kits to diagnose blood
coagulation and related disorders |
|
Aug. 2002
|
|
Sigma-Amelung |
9.0
|
|
N/A
|
|
Hemostasis instruments and reagents
|
|
Nov. 2002
|
|
Sigma’s specialty clinical chemistry
business |
6.0
|
|
N/A
|
|
Mostly esoteric products |
Business Description
Trinity's products test for
foreign agents such as viruses, bacteria and parasites, and for naturally
occurring conditions such as cancer cells and hormones. Revenues are derived
from 400 different tests within numerous diagnostic categories.
Table 2. Trinity Biotech
Products and Estimated Revenues
(US$ in millions)
| |
|
Estimated Revenues
|
| |
|
2002
|
2003
|
| Infectious Disease Tests |
|
|
$15.00 |
|
$16.00 |
| Lyme Disease |
|
5.6 |
|
5.8 |
|
| TORC (a) |
|
2.5 |
|
2.7 |
|
| Respiratory |
|
2.4 |
|
2.5 |
|
| Measles, mumps virus |
|
2.2 |
|
2.5 |
|
| Epstein Barr Virus |
|
1.8 |
|
2 |
|
| RUO (Research Use
Only) |
|
0.5 |
|
0.5 |
|
| Sexually Transmitted Disease Tests |
|
|
12 |
|
12.5 |
| Lab Tests |
|
8 |
|
8.5 |
|
| Rapid Tests |
|
4 |
|
4.0 (b) |
|
| Hemostasis Reagents |
|
|
12 |
|
21.5 |
| Biopool Tests |
|
9.5 |
|
10 |
|
| Sigma |
|
2.5 (c) |
|
11.5 |
|
| Hormone Tests |
|
|
3.9 |
|
3.6 |
| Autoimmune Disorder Tests |
|
|
2.9 |
|
3.2 |
| Enteric Infection Tests |
|
|
2 |
|
2.3 |
| Cardiac and Cancer Markers |
|
|
0.8 |
|
0.7 |
| Specialty Clinical Chemistry Tests |
|
|
0.5 (d) |
|
7 |
| Hemostasis Instruments |
|
|
0.3 |
|
1 |
| Misc. Revenues (service & parts, freight,
license fees) |
|
|
1.5 |
|
1.2 |
| |
|
|
$51.00 |
|
$69.00 |
| (a) Toxoplasma, rubella, cytomegalovirus |
|
|
|
|
|
| (b) Not including sales of UniGold™
HIV test in the U.S., possibly beginning Q3 of 2003 |
| (c) Sales subsequent to August
2002 acquisition |
| (d) Sales subsequent to November
2002 acquisition |
The Company's products may
also be broken down according to key technologies and techniques. (See
Appendix for a description of certain technologies.)
• Enzyme
Immunoassay (EIA) products include over 100 assays utilizing different
formats. These tests are performed on plates that allow for up to 96
simultaneous tests and can be performed manually or more typically on automated
equipment.
• Fluorescence
Assays are either Direct Fluorescence Assays (DFA) or Immune
Fluorescence Assays (IFA). Trinity offers 40 fluorescence assays, which are
typically performed in medium to large hospital laboratories around the world.
Most of the tests are IFAs, and the majority of these are used to diagnose autoimmune
disorders. The remainder of the assays are used to assist in the diagnosis of
infectious diseases such as Lyme disease and Legionnaires disease. Of the 8
DFAs Trinity offers, the largest range are for detecting causative agents of
sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), principally Chlamydia and Herpes.
• Rapid
Assays include a range of 14 membrane-and latex-based rapid assays utilized in POC and over-the-counter markets.
These tests give a definitive qualitative answer, indicating the
presence or absence of antigens or antibodies as an aid in the diagnosis
of infection or other clinical conditions.
Tests for HIV are
available in three formats. SalivaCardTM is a self-encased, flow-through rapid EIA device where results
are obtained by visual interpretation of a color change of a saliva sample,
whereas CapillusTM
utilizes latex agglutination enhanced by capillary slide technology. The
CapillusTM test has
been approved by the World Health Organization as a rapid test, but has not
been sold in the U.S. because it lacks FDA approval. However, these older
technologies are expected to be superceded by the UniGoldTM test, a 5-10 minute
test performed on a drop of blood, which does not require refrigeration. As
mentioned previously, Trinity is in the process of submitting the UniGoldTM test to the FDA and is
hopeful of receiving marketing clearance this summer.
Trinity's UniGoldTM HIV test has the
potential to become its single most important product, due to the continued
increase in the number of HIV positive cases and despite competition from other
rapid tests. During November, OraSure Technologies received FDA approval of
its lab-based blood test, the OraQuick® Rapid HIV-1 Antibody Test, which
uses a finger-stick whole blood sample for the detection of HIV-1 antibodies.
This is being distributed by Abbott Laboratories, but thus far has reportedly
received only limited acceptance; in fact, its relatively high price probably
limits its use to the more developed countries. Apparently Trinity's UniGoldTM test is faster than
OraSure's (i.e., 5-10 minutes vs. 20 minutes) and is more widely used outside
the U.S.
Another prospective
competitive product is a rapid (less than 20 minute) urine-based test for HIV
being developed by Calypte Biomedical. Calypte plans to introduce this test to
selected foreign markets as early as this March, but because of extensive
clinical studies required by the FDA, U.S. marketing is unlikely before the end
of 2004. Calypte plans to offer its product in two formats—a simple,
inexpensive dip stick version and, for the U.S. market, a product incorporated
in a cassette, similar to U.S. pregnancy tests.
• Western Blot Assays are typically
used in reference or specialty laboratories for confirming the presence, or
absence, of antibodies. Trinity's tests include the first Lyme Western Blot
assay to receive FDA clearance for distribution in the U.S. Other Western Blot
kits include assays to aid in the diagnosis of autoimmune disorders and, more
typically, infectious diseases such as Syphilis and Epstein Barr Virus.
• Hemostasis test kits were added to
Trinity's product line through the acquisition of the Biopool hemostasis
business and promise to become Trinity's single largest assay in 2003. These
kits assess and diagnose disorders of blood coagulation, thrombotic risk
factors, fibrinolysis, platelet function and the vascular systems. They are
sold to hospitals, clinical laboratories, commercial reference laboratories and
research institutions.
During August 2002, Trinity
greatly broadened this product line through the acquisition of the hemostasis
division of Sigma Diagnostics, part of Sigma Aldrich. This included a
portfolio of 50 tests, covering both routine and specialty assays, manufactured
in St. Louis. Combined with the Biopool business, Trinity now also has
extensive distribution and direct sales forces in key markets, including the
U.S., Germany and the U.K.
The major acquisition from Sigma also included the Amelung line
of automated and semi-automated instruments, on which the hemostasis
tests can be performed. Manufactured in Lemgo, Germany, they consist
of small, medium-size and large throughput instruments that address
the physician's office market as well as large reference and university
laboratories. There is an installed base of 500 instruments, each
of which is expected to generate revenues of about $15,000 per year
in plastic consumables and reagents, and management is hopeful of
expanding this base by an additional 100 instruments per annum through
a combination of sales and placements typically linked to annual
commitments to purchase reagents. This business should also be boosted
by the addition of a new coagulation analyzer, the DestinyTM, which received FDA marketing clearance
last November. This product is the culmination of three years of
product development effort, and gives small laboratories the ability
to process hemostasis tests formerly offered only in large reference
laboratories. It can process about 100 samples per hour.
Competition in hemostasis
instrumentation comes from a limited number of competitors, primarily Dade
Behring, the Japanese instrument manufacturer Sysmex, and Instrumentation
Laboratory (now part of a Swiss conglomerate). We understand that one
important advantage offered by Trinity's equipment is the ability to confirm
measurements by both optical and mechanical readings.
Management publicly estimated
that revenues from the hemostasis business in the first 12 months following
this acquisition will approximate $19 million, with $11 million derived from
the Sigma Diagnostic products and $8 million from Biopool's products. (As
shown previously, we estimate that in calendar 2003 combined sales will
approximate $22.5 million, including sales of related instruments). Furthermore,
after all hemostasis test manufacturing from both entities is transferred to
Ireland, there should be significant cost savings. Another important point is
that Trinity also intends to expand its equipment expertise into the
manufacture of immunoassay instruments on which Trinity's existing broad range
of immunoassay diagnostic tests will run.
Sigma Diagnostics had acquired
the Amelung instrument business in 2000 to complement its hemostasis test kit
product line in St. Louis, and reportedly paid in excess of $20 million for
Amelung. However, in April 2002, Sigma's management announced its decision to
exit diagnostics in order to concentrate on its core business of selling
research chemicals. Apparently Sigma was losing money in diagnostics, which,
in addition to the hemostasis component, included a line of immunoassay
products (subsequently sold to IVAX) and clinical chemistry products; a
specialty portion of the clinical chemistry product line was sold to Trinity in
late November.
Investment in HiberGen Limited
This represents an entry for
Trinity into the area of molecular diagnostics. In 2000, Trinity acquired 33%
of HiberGen for U.S. $1.4 million, and in mid-2001, increased its holding to
40% at a cost of $0.3 million. HiberGen is currently exploring the possibility
of obtaining an additional $5 million, largely through venture capital
investors, and up to $750,000 of this amount is expected to come from Trinity.
HiberGen, also based in
Ireland, was founded in 1996 with the objective of identifying genetic
variations of medical relevance. In pursuit of this goal, a proprietary
technology was developed, called SNaPIT. This is a rapid genetic variation
detection technology that has been licensed to San Diego-based Sequenom Inc.
and an East European reagent manufacturer, Fermentas; other third party
licenses are anticipated. Licensing revenues from existing agreements are
expected to approximate $2.0 million in 2004, and thereby help fund a
potentially more valuable disease gene program.
HiberGen also has an
isothermal amplification technology called GMA (Glucosolase Mediated
Amplification), an extension of the SNaPIT technology. This provides an
alternative for Trinity to upgrade its existing immunoassay and other
diagnostic products to molecular diagnostics, since Trinity has the exclusive
license for this technology in pathogen detection. GMA is similar to PCR
(Polymerase Chain Reaction) technology, which is being used by others to
replicate, or amplify, the DNA supply so as to permit many more tests.
In addition to its technology
platform, HiberGen has disease gene management programs in several areas,
including rheumatoid arthritis and diabetic nephropathy. HiberGen's objective
in these programs is to build an intellectual property position around the
identification and characterization of the disease-associated genes for
diagnosis and treatment.
A final element of HiberGen's
business involves pharmacogenomics, whereby it will use the SNaPIT technology
in the generation of genetic profiles. These will access the unusually
homogenous, Celtic-based population in Ireland to conduct population and
familial studies. These studies will be applicable to drugs under development
as well as to drugs being marketed, with the objective of improving safety and
efficacy. Currently HiberGen has obtained access to ten disease cohorts from
the Irish population, and in three of these it has a sufficient number of
samples to begin the genetic analysis. These three are ADD (attention deficit
disorder), CAD (coronary artery disease), and IBD (inflammatory bowel disease).
It plans to establish partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies,
whereby it would receive upfront and milestone payments associated with the
development of multiple products in each disease category.
Competitive Issues and Strategies
• Technological
Challenges. Trinity's revenues from some of its older tests have been
restrained and eroded somewhat by the introduction of competing products based
on molecular diagnostics. In particular, products offered during the past 2-3
years by PerkinElmer and others, encompassing PCR technology have effectively
challenged EIA and fluorescence technologies within the STD product category,
especially in France and Sweden. However, Trinity is hopeful that this erosion
can be stabilized and even reversed, in part because of a recently published
study which concludes that the EIA format is better for detecting Chlamydia
than PCR. In addition, the cost of EIA testing is significantly lower than
that for PCR.
• Adapting
Products to European Platforms. This is not a significant technological
challenge, but reflects a realization that if Trinity is going to more aggressively
penetrate European markets, then some of its products need to be modified. In
one instance this will require changing from a two-plate format to a
single-plate format, and in other cases it will require reconfiguring tests to
address the European preference for relying primarily on quantitative rather
than qualitative results. Another example is the planned development of a
Western Blot test for the European strain of Lyme disease.
• Filling
in Voids. Besides modifying existing tests to better address European
needs and preferences, management has been evaluating opportunities where it
does not have any offering. For example, it has only an IFA-based product for
diagnosing Coeliac disease (an auto-immune disorder that stems from an
intolerance to gluten in cereals), but because the market is now shifting to
EIA-based tests, Trinity plans to offer this test in both formats.
Another strategy is to
have each of the Company's distributors—of which there are approximately
250 worldwide— increase the number of products they handle. Many of
these distributors offer only a limited number of Trinity's products.
• Bundling
Products. Trinity's increasingly broad product line is enabling it to
become a comprehensive supplier of a laboratory's needs at a time when these
customers prefer to deal with fewer vendors. This, in turn, facilitates the
bundling together of orders for many products, whereby the customer may be
given an incentive for a volume discount and, more importantly, Trinity can in
effect couple a price-competitive product, such as its TOCH panel, with a more
proprietary product, such as its test for diagnosing Epstein Barr virus or Lyme
disease. The recent acquisition of Sigma's special clinical chemistry tests
has also added proprietary products which have given Trinity access to some new
accounts.
• Product
Standardization. There is already a high degree of standardization among
Trinity's products, which means that a laboratory with automated
instrumentation can run many batches of tests simultaneously using the same
instrument. Management nevertheless plans to further increase the uniformity
of its products to make them more automation friendly. Consolidation in the
lab industry has also accelerated the trend toward greater standardization of
ready to use components where no preparation, such as dilution, is required,
and incubation times have been adjusted so as to be suitable for automation.
Trinity is benefiting from this trend, because its highly standardized product line
is receptive to greater automation.
• Opportunities
in Instrumentation. The acquisition of Sigma's instrument business has
given Trinity a new capability that it can leverage. In addition to selling
its branded instruments, Trinity could manufacture one or more of these on an
OEM basis for others. Also, as mentioned previously, it could develop
equipment to run many of its non-hemostasis tests.
• Expanding
Direct Sales. As discussed below, in the last two years, direct sales
forces have been established in the U.S., Germany and the U.K. The U.S. sales
force sells different products than does its U.S. distributor, but this
relationship is changing so as to enable Trinity to eventually offer all
products, while still maintaining Wampole as a distributor.
Sales and Marketing
Through a network of approximately 250 international distributors,
Trinity has a worldwide customer base in 80 countries. These distributors
are managed by regional sales directors in North America, Europe,
the Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
Table 3. Trinity Biotech Estimated Sales
(US$ in millions)
| |
Estimated Sales
|
|
|
| |
2001
|
2002E
|
2003E
|
|
|
| North America: |
|
|
|
|
|
| To Regional Distributors |
$2.00
|
$3.30
|
$4.00
|
|
|
| To Strategic Partner (Wampole) |
10
|
11
|
12
|
|
|
| Direct |
13
|
21
|
27
|
|
|
| Subtotal |
25
|
35.3
|
43
|
|
|
| Europe |
6.9
|
9.6
|
17
|
|
|
| Middle East/Africa |
3.9
|
4.4
|
5
|
|
|
| Other Foreign Markets |
1.2
|
1.7
|
4
|
|
|
| TOTAL |
$37.00
|
$51.00
|
$69.00
|
|
|
The most important agreement
is with Wampole, formerly a division of Carter-Wallace that was purchased by
Medpointe Capital and then recently sold to Inverness Medical Innovations.
Trinity entered into a supply agreement with Wampole in 1995 whereby that
company was granted exclusive rights to Trinity's products in the U.S. and
Puerto Rico. Nevertheless, Trinity is permitted to sell certain of its
products in those territories which Wampole chose not to market, and products
subsequently obtained by Trinity through acquisitions are not covered by this
agreement.
Trinity's direct sales in the
U.S. began following the December 2000 acquisition of Bartels, Inc., which had
its own sales force. Additional sales people were subsequently obtained with
the acquisition of Biopool in December 2001, but until the acquisition of
products from Sigma Aldrich in 2002, these sales efforts were managed as
separate organizations. All U.S. sales are now being directed from St. Louis,
the location of Sigma's hemostasis and specialty clinical chemistry businesses.
This has also included centralization of customer service. Sales and
marketing personnel in the U.S. now total about 30. Also, in mid-2001, the Company
initiated direct sales in the important German market which, including sales
people formerly employed by Sigma Aldrich, now total about 22. Then, late in
2002, Trinity formed a sales force of five people in the U.K.
One of Trinity's important
selling points is the breadth of its product line, particularly in the
diagnosis of infectious diseases, but the appeal of this and other features
varies according to the individual customer. For example, it has been very
successful selling the MarDx line of Western Blot diagnostic tests to large
reference laboratories such as Laboratory Corporation of America and Quest
Diagnostics, while its hemostasis line has been relatively more successful in
penetrating large hospital accounts. As indicated previously, the unique
specialty clinical chemistry products recently acquired from Sigma should be
helpful in broadening Trinity's access to new accounts, and centralization of
the U.S. sales and marketing efforts in St. Louis should also help the Company
broaden the penetration of its product line in many accounts.
Another important recent
development was a price increase of about 12% obtained by Trinity last
September on the products that it sells to Wampole. At that time the Company
also altered the terms of its relationship whereby Trinity will have the right
to sell in the U.S. its products that are currently being sold exclusively by
Wampole. We understand that the shift in this arrangement will begin in the
third quarter of 2004.
Facilities
The primary raw materials
required for Trinity's test kits consist of antibodies, antigens and other
reagents, plastic and packaging materials. The reagents used as raw materials
are acquired for the most part from third parties. The Company's manufacturing
and other facilities consist of the following:
Location
Employees
Bray, Ireland
250
Jamestown, N.Y.
100
Carlsbad, Calif.
40
St. Louis, Mo.
35
Lemgo, Germany
90
515
Bray, Ireland
This 70,000 ft2 leased facility is the site of corporate
headquarters, and houses a broad range of functions, from R&D
to manufacturing, distribution, marketing, finance and administration.
Jamestown, N.Y. This facility (24,000 ft2) was obtained with the 1997 acquisition of Clark
Laboratories. A broad range of infectious disease diagnostics are
manufactured, and this is also the logistics center for the U.S.
business as well as the U.S. engineering center (i.e., it conducts
U.S. training for instrumentation service technicians and some product
development).
Carlsbad, Calif. The two leased facilities
at this location (36,000 ft2 combined) are associated with the MarDx business.
There is some product development work, but these are primarily
manufacturing plants, most importantly producing Lyme disease diagnostics.
St.
Louis, Mo. Subsequent to the
August 2000 acquisition of the hemostasis reagent business from
Sigma, the Company opened offices at this location to accommodate
the U.S. sales force. This includes a number of former Sigma employees
who provide marketing, sales and technical support.
Lemgo, Germany This 80,000 ft2 facility was also part of Sigma, producing instruments
and associated plastic consumables for the hemostasis market. Trinity
has also consolidated the marketing and shipment of this product
line at Lemgo.
With the December 2001 acquisition of Biopool's
hemostasis business, Trinity also obtained two additional facilities
— a leased 25,000 ft2 plant located in Ventura, California and a leased
12,500 ft2 plant in Umea,
Sweden. However, the Ventura operation was closed in September and
its production is currently being transferred to Ireland, while
the production portion of the facility in Sweden is in the process
of being closed.
Research and Development
Trinity employs 34 full time
R&D professionals at its facilities in Ireland, Jamestown, N.Y., and
Carlsbad, Calif., and in 2003, associated expenditures are estimated to be
about $5.7 million. The Company has five R&D groups in Ireland and the
U.S., focusing separately on the areas outlined below. Trinity also
subcontracts some R&D to independent researchers in the U.S. and also
sponsors various projects in the U.S., the U.K. and Ireland.
Microtitre Plate Development Group
• Development of microtitre plate
assay for the detection of HSV-1 (which causes serious complications in
pregnant women) and HSV-2 (which makes patients more susceptible to contracting
HIV).
• Adaptation of assays on
Microtrak XL units. During 1998 Trinity acquired the Microtrak Chlamydia
business from Dade Behring Inc., and thereby obtained instruments to run
Microtitre plate tests. Since these only ran Chlamydia EIA tests, Trinity has
been reconfiguring its other Microtitre assays so that they can also run on
this instrument.
• Redevelopment of the CAPTIATM EIA products. The
Company's Syphillis IgG product is undergoing reformatting in order to make
these kits more compatible with automated assay systems.
• Recombigen HIV. This microtitre
plate test is being re-developed so as to allow it to be more competitive in
the marketplace as well as suitable for automation.
Rapid Development Group
• Development of Recombinant HIV
UniGoldTM Test. This
represents a modification of Trinity's UniGoldTM HIV Test using recombinant proteins, and allows
the test to be produced in a more cost-effective manner.
• Modified Strep A Test. Trinity
has developed a simpler form of its rapid Strep A test to be sold to doctor's
offices in the U.S.
• UniGoldTM Flu Test. Trinity is developing a rapid
test for Flu A and Flu B on its UniGoldTM platform.
Western Blot Development Group
• European Lyme IgG and IgM
Western Blots. Development has been completed on two new Western Blots that
have been designed specifically for the detection of European Lyme disease.
Immunofluorescent Assay Development Group
• Trinity's development
department has been expanded to include a group that will work exclusively on
redesigning various immunofluorescent assays from indirect assays to direct
assays. The aim is to make the products more user- friendly and reduce assay
times.
Instrumentation Group
• Trinity is commencing research
in instrumentation.
This group includes development personnel that were formerly part of
Sigma-Amelung.
Earnings Record and Outlook
An outline of the Company's
long-term annual earnings record is tabulated below, and more detailed recent
results and projections are shown on pages 13 and 14. Prior to 1997 Trinity
was essentially a development stage company, largely utilizing technology
obtained through the acquisition of Disease Detection International in March
1994. Acquisitions in 1997 and subsequent years have dramatically increased
and broadened the Company's business.
Table
4. Trinity Biotech Historical Earnings
| |
|
|
Before Exceptional Items
|
| |
|
Reported Sales (mil)
|
Net Income (mil)
|
EPS (cents)
|
| |
1992 (a) |
$0.02
|
($0.65)
|
($23.18)
|
| |
1993 (a) |
2.39
|
-3.45
|
-70.62
|
| |
1994 (b) |
5.22
|
-3.28
|
-50.67
|
| |
1995 |
9.91
|
-0.54
|
-4.88
|
| |
1996 |
7.15
|
-0.05
|
-0.31
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
1997 |
16.83
|
1.11
|
5.81
|
| |
1998 |
23.17
|
2.56
|
9.97
|
| |
1999 |
26.1
|
4.51
|
16.02
|
| |
2000 |
29.74
|
6.11
|
16.46
|
| |
2001 |
37.06
|
5.1
|
12.62
|
| |
(a) Fiscal year ending February
of the following calendar year |
| |
(b) Accounting period was for
10 months to December |
2001
Sales jumped 25% in 2001,
largely reflecting the contribution from three recent acquisitions: MarDx
Diagnostics (acquired March 2000); assets of Bartels Inc. (December 2000), and
the Amerlex hormone business (October 2001). Sales of other products, in the
aggregate, rose an estimated 5%. Gross profits advanced 32%, or $4.6 million,
but this was offset by a doubling of administrative expenses to $10.3 million
(excluding exceptional items), reflecting costs incurred by the companies
acquired in 2000 and 2001 plus the investments in direct salesforces in Germany
and the U.S. Amortization also increased by $0.5 million, due to commencement
of amortization on certain product lines and the recent acquisitions. The
cumulative impact of all these factors was that net income for the year (before
exceptional items) declined by 17%. EPS fell by a greater amount (23%), due to
an increase in the weighted average number of shares.
Exceptional administrative
expenses in 2001 were $3.65 million. Of this total, $2.85 million related to
commitments made upon the acquisition of Biopool's assets—specifically,
payments to employees for redundancy and plant closure costs, including
commitments for onerous leasing arrangements. The balance of the exceptional
charge of $0.8 million related to the acquisition of Bartels, and was mostly
payments to employees to ensure the effective transfer of the business from
Seattle to other facilities.
We believe that Trinity's
results should be viewed before these exceptional charges, and observe that
certain provisions made for restructuring costs incurred as a result of
acquisitions (principally payments to employees) would not be recognizable
under U.S. GAAP until they were actually incurred. Unfortunately, the
comparison between Irish GAAP and U.S. GAAP is also complicated by different
treatment of other items. In particular, in 2001 U.S. GAAP would not have
permitted the capitalization of certain R&D costs, and therefore R&D
expensed in 2001 would have been $0.9 million greater than under Irish GAAP. A
more significant difference relates to the amortization of goodwill. Under new
rules, effective December 2001, goodwill is no longer amortized under U.S. GAAP
but will be subject to annual impairment tests. In contrast, under Irish GAAP,
goodwill must be capitalized and amortized over the period of its useful life.
Therefore, it is believed that the net effect in the future will usually be
that the statement of earnings according to Irish GAAP will be more
conservative than earnings according to U.S. GAAP.
2002 and 2003
As shown on page 14, sales and pretax income posted strong gains during
the first three quarters of 2002, and for the nine month period rose 36% and
25%, respectively. (Excluding Trinity's share of the operating loss in its
genomics associate, HiberGen, pretax income advanced nearly 29%). Sales were
boosted by inclusion of two 2001 acquisitions for the entire nine months (the
Amerlex hormone business, acquired October 2001, and the Biopool hemostasis
business, acquired December 2001) as well as five weeks' sales from the Sigma
acquisition of August 2002. The latter two acquisitions also continued to
boost year-to-year comparisons in the December quarter. EPS comparisons were
penalized by a higher effective tax rate.
We estimate that earnings for
the fourth quarter of 2002 were similar to those of the third quarter, although
sales were probably somewhat higher because they included a full quarter's
contribution from Sigma-Amelung and some initial sales from the more recently
acquired Sigma specialty clinical chemistry business. Results should also have
benefited modestly from a weighted average price increase of about 12%,
effective in early September, on products sold to the U.S. distributor, Wampole.
However, we believe that these benefits were offset by costs associated with
integration of the Sigma-Amelung acquisition. Also, cost reductions from
elimination of Biopool's facility in Ventura, Calif., as well as Biopool's
facility in Sweden, will not be evident before the first quarter of this year.
We expect strong sales gains
throughout 2003, for inclusion of the two acquisitions from Sigma for the
entire year should virtually guarantee favorable comparisons and, among
prospective new products, the new HIV blood test could make a meaningful
contribution to U.S. sales during the second half of the year. Manufacturing
efficiencies should also accompany higher volume. Our estimates do not
anticipate any additional acquisitions, an assumption that seems logical near
term as Trinity more fully digests its recent purchases. However, in this
regard our 2004 estimates could prove to be conservative, since we expect
opportunistic acquisitions to continue to be a key component of management's
growth strategy.
Table 5. Annual Income Statements
(000's of $US, except EPS)
| |
2000
|
2001
|
2002E
|
2003E
|
2004E
|
| Sales |
|
|
|
|
|
| Continuing Operations |
$25,017.20
|
$36,662.30
|
$46,900
|
|
|
| Acquisitions |
4,725.80
|
402.3
|
4,100
|
|
|
| |
$29,742.90
|
$37,064.60
|
$51,000
|
$69,000
|
$75,000
|
| % Annual Change |
14.00%
|
24.60%
|
37.60%
|
35.30%
|
8.70%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Gross Profit Margin |
48.20%
|
51.00%
|
47.30%
|
46.80%
|
47.30%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| R&D Expenses |
$2,681.20
|
$2,779.70
|
$4,200
|
$5,700
|
$5,900
|
| SG&A Expenses |
|
|
|
|
|
| Normal (a) |
5,157.50
|
10,307.80
|
13,400
|
16,200
|
17,100
|
| Exceptional |
1,287.00
|
3,650.00
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Operating Profit |
|
|
|
|
|
| Continuing Operations |
3,969.90
|
4,989.10
|
6,525
|
10,400
|
12,470
|
| Acquisitions |
-1,246.10
|
-2,808.90
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Share of Operating Loss in Associate |
-30
|
-195
|
-300
|
-300
|
-300
|
| Interest & Other Charges (net) |
238.7
|
329.9
|
600
|
750
|
370
|
| Pretax Income |
4,947.30
|
1,655.30
|
5,625
|
9,350
|
11,800
|
| As % of Sales |
16.60%
|
4.50%
|
11.00%
|
13.80%
|
15.90%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Tax Rate |
2.50%
|
12.40%
|
16.40%
|
19.80%
|
19.50%
|
| Net Income (b) |
$6,140
|
$5,290
|
$4,700
|
$7,500
|
$9,500
|
| Diluted EPS, in cents (b) |
16.46
|
12.62
|
11.5
|
17.5
|
22
|
| % of Annual Change |
2.70%
|
-23.30%
|
-8.90%
|
52.20%
|
25.70%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Avg. Number of Shares (mil) |
37.1
|
40.4
|
40.6
|
40.7
|
40.7
|
| Fully Diluted Shares (mil) |
40.5
|
42
|
42.2
|
43.7
|
43.7
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| (a) Including amortization of
goodwill of $2.4 million in 2002, and $2.5 million in 2003 and
2004. |
| (b) Before exceptional expenses.
After these expenses, 2000 net income was $4.823 million, or
$12.20cents/share; 2001 net income was $1.449 million, or $3.73
cents per share. |
Table 6. QUARTERLY Income Statements
(000's of $US, except EPS)
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
2001
|
|
|
2002
|
|
| |
3/31
|
|
6/30
|
|
9/30
|
|
12/31
|
|
|
3/31
|
|
6/30
|
|
9/30
|
|
12/31 Est.
|
|
| Revenues |
$8,299
|
|
$9,425
|
|
$9,540
|
|
$9,801
|
|
|
$11,414
|
|
$11,759
|
|
$13,821
|
|
$14,006
|
|
| % Annual Change |
+21.2
|
%
|
+27.3
|
%
|
+25.5
|
%
|
+24.2
|
%
|
|
+37.5
|
%
|
+24.8
|
%
|
+44.9
|
%
|
+42.9
|
%
|
| Gross Profit Margin |
51.3
|
%
|
51.7
|
%
|
49.6
|
%
|
51.6
|
%
|
|
48.6
|
| |